The Super Bowl isn’t just an NFL fan’s paradise—it’s the holy grail for bettors. Whether you’re a seasoned punter or someone dipping their toes in for the first time, the Super Bowl presents some of the juiciest opportunities to make your Sunday a whole lot more interesting (and hopefully profitable). However, here’s the kicker—not all bets are worth your hard-earned cash. To succeed, you need to spot value in the betting markets, not just pick the team you think looks good on paper.
What Does “Value” Even Mean in Betting?
Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s clear one thing up—what the heck is “value” in betting? Simply put, a value bet is one where the odds offered by a sportsbook are better (or more favorable) than the true probability of that event happening.
For example, if you think a team has a 50% chance (or 1-in-2) of winning, their fair odds would be +100. But if a sportsbook is offering +150, ding ding ding—you’ve found yourself some value. You’re essentially betting when the odds don’t fully reflect the team’s chances of success.
Super Bowl betting is full of markets where value can hide, but you have to know where to look. For example, Buffalo Bills FanDuel odds to win Superbowl 2025 are at +2500. Does that mean they’re worth a punt?
Break Down the Super Bowl Betting Markets
Super Bowl betting isn’t just about picking who wins the Lombardi Trophy. Oh no, betting markets go far beyond just the moneyline odds. Here’s a quick rundown of the most popular markets and where you should be searching for value.
1. The Classic Moneyline
The moneyline bet is straightforward enough—who’s going to win the game? Simple, right? Well, not so fast. Super Bowl moneylines are popular with casual bettors, which means sportsbooks will often “shade” the odds in favor of the favorite to capitalize on the public bias.
How to Spot Value:
Look for underdog teams capable of pulling off an upset. Think about injuries, playoff momentum, or key matchups that favor the less popular squad. Favorites tend to get overbet because, well… most people are bad at betting. Take advantage of that.
2. Point Spreads
The point spread levels the playing field. Oddsmakers set a line (e.g., Team A -3.5), and you’re betting on whether the favorite will win by more than the spread or if the underdog will lose by less than the spread (or win outright).
How to Spot Value:
Public perception heavily impacts point spreads. If everyone’s hyping up a team based on recent performances, the spread might get overly inflated. Look for teams quietly keeping games close throughout the season—they might cover the spread even if they can’t win outright.
3. Total Points (Over/Under)
Over/under bets are straightforward. You wager on whether the total points scored by both teams will exceed or fall short of the number set by sportsbooks.
How to Spot Value:
The public loves the over because, well, who doesn’t want a high-scoring, fireworks-filled Super Bowl? But savvy bettors know to dig into the defenses. Value often lies with the under, especially in matchups featuring strong defensive teams or conservative game plans.
4. Prop Bets
Super Bowl props are the playground for creative bettors. Anything from the player to score first, to the length of the national anthem, to whether the Gatorade shower is orange or blue—it’s all fair game.
How to Spot Value:
Stick to player- and game-related props for the best shot at finding value. Analyze trends, player stats, and matchups. While the color of Gatorade is fun to bet on, it’s not exactly an area where you can “research” (unless you have inside knowledge from the locker room).
5. Futures Bets
Ah, futures bets. This is your chance to pick the Super Bowl winner way in advance, often months before the playoffs even start. The earlier you bet, the better the odds, usually.
How to Spot Value:
Look for overlooked teams with potential. A team with a strong defense and a rising star at QB might have long odds in preseason markets but could climb fast once the season unfolds. Pay attention to schedule strength, injuries, and offseason moves.
Super Bowl Betting Pro Tips
Once you’ve narrowed down the markets that appeal to you, here’s how to play your hand like a seasoned pro.
Look Past the Public Hype
The Super Bowl attracts everyone, from die-hard fans to your coworker who just learned what a touchdown is last week. Public bettors (cough casual fans) tend to place heavy bets on favorites, overs, and big-name players. Sportsbooks know this and adjust odds accordingly.
The Move: Go contrarian. If everyone’s hammering the favorite and the over, look for value in the underdog or the under.
Do Your Homework
Sure, it’s nice to go with your gut, but it’s better to have some actual NFL betting data to back up your decisions. Dig into team stats, head-to-head histories, and even player-specific performances under pressure.
The Move: Treat betting like you would an investment—get the information first, then act.
Manage Your Bankroll
This isn’t The Wolf of Wall Street. Don’t blow your entire bankroll on one bet—spread your risk and bet only what you can afford to lose.
The Move: Set a betting budget for the entire Super Bowl event and stick to it. Treat your bankroll like sacred ground—it’s vital for long-term success.
Why Spotting Value is Essential
Spotting value isn’t just a nice-to-have skill. It’s the foundation for making consistent profits in sports betting. Super Bowl betting markets are particularly wild, with tons of public action influencing odds left and right. By staying disciplined, doing your research, and learning to sniff out value, you’re already ahead of the pack.
Could you lose a bet that you thought was a “value” pick? For sure. Even value bets can come up short—it’s part of the game. But over time, betting on value rather than going with the crowd is how you separate yourself from recreational bettors.
